Taking the Long View
It may be a little early to call the election results for this coming November, but I am far more optimistic than I was a few months ago. Democrats are almost certain to gain seats in both houses of Congress, and it is even conceivable that Democrats will gain control of one or both houses.
Some races are closer than others. Some will surprise people, but over all it seems certain that Democrats will gain seats, and if they don't take the Senate and House, they will substantially narrow the voting margins.
If the Democrats do not gain an absolute majority then, given the occasional party line-crossing by "good" Republicans such as Lincoln Chafee (RI), there is good reason to hope that many of the close votes will swing against the President over the next two years.
This would not be nearly as good for the country (in my humble opinion) as an absolute majority that would give Democrats the important right to assign Committee chairmanships, to set the agenda for legislative action and debate, and to force the type of investigation and oversight that has been lacking in Congress for the past six years, (one could say that Congressional oversight actually disappeared some years before the arrival of Pres. Bush, when the Republican led Congress decided the only thing important to the Country was whether Bill Clinton had gotten a blowjob).
But I am comforted by either outcome. I think it proves something that I predicted about three years ago, before the Democrats chose John Kerry as a candidate.
Given the way the war was going in Iraq (three years ago), I suggested, to anyone who would listen, that it might not be such a bad thing if Bush was elected to a second term. Some people were so upset they wouldn't even let me explain why.
Three years ago, the future of the Iraq war was clear to me (it was clear before it started) and I suggested that the worse things became in Iraq, the more certainly American's will realize that his programs and the Republican platform were bad for America, bad for the American people,
bad for the whole world, and morally reprehensible to boot.
I also suggested that the worsening of the Iraqi situation was inevitable, and that a Democrat might find it impossible to withdraw (lets not forget, Kennedy and Johnson, both good Democrats, were both lured into pouring more troops and money into Vietnam on the theory that victory was just around the corner.
Consider the challenges that incumbent Democrats face just defending their votes in favor of the war. Senate Republicans miss no opportunity to respond to legitimate criticisms of the handling of the war with the non sequitor "but you voted for it."
If John Kerry had squeaked out a win in 2004, and he were President today, with the war in Iraq going the way it is now, the news would have been filled with Republicans telling us "But George Bush had a plan. The insurgency was in its death throes. But the liberal, elitest, soft on defense, soft on terror, tax and spend Democrats tried to cut and run and NOW look at it. If GWB had been reelected, the Iraqis by now would be throwing rose petals at their feet, and Iran would be ready to follow."
I think that a victory for the Democrats might well have ended up crippling the party for a long, long time.
Instead, GWB won the election and two years later, we are poised to take back the House and Senate. If we don't win either House, the Iraq war is only going to get worse given Bush's unwillingness to change course or consider that his real mistakes are all traced to his fundamental (fundamentalist) misconceptions concerning history, economy, politics, philosophy, Islam, the hearts and minds of ordinary people, the nature of war (can you imagine GWB read ing von Clausewitz?), and the motivations of the jihadists. If the Democrats are close to having a majority now, just imagine how much more successful they will be in the 2008 elections after two more years of Bush's mishandling of every major issue from Iraq, to Korea, from Iran to Darfur, from the economy to tax policy, social security and immigration, two more years of Terry Schiavo's, flag waving, gay-bashing, and swift-boating.
So I'm not going to be terribly disappointed if the Democrats do not take control of both Houses in two months. I won't be as happy as I would be if we had taken every seat. But as far as I'm concerned, we've already won.
Some races are closer than others. Some will surprise people, but over all it seems certain that Democrats will gain seats, and if they don't take the Senate and House, they will substantially narrow the voting margins.
If the Democrats do not gain an absolute majority then, given the occasional party line-crossing by "good" Republicans such as Lincoln Chafee (RI), there is good reason to hope that many of the close votes will swing against the President over the next two years.
This would not be nearly as good for the country (in my humble opinion) as an absolute majority that would give Democrats the important right to assign Committee chairmanships, to set the agenda for legislative action and debate, and to force the type of investigation and oversight that has been lacking in Congress for the past six years, (one could say that Congressional oversight actually disappeared some years before the arrival of Pres. Bush, when the Republican led Congress decided the only thing important to the Country was whether Bill Clinton had gotten a blowjob).
But I am comforted by either outcome. I think it proves something that I predicted about three years ago, before the Democrats chose John Kerry as a candidate.
Given the way the war was going in Iraq (three years ago), I suggested, to anyone who would listen, that it might not be such a bad thing if Bush was elected to a second term. Some people were so upset they wouldn't even let me explain why.
Three years ago, the future of the Iraq war was clear to me (it was clear before it started) and I suggested that the worse things became in Iraq, the more certainly American's will realize that his programs and the Republican platform were bad for America, bad for the American people,
bad for the whole world, and morally reprehensible to boot.
I also suggested that the worsening of the Iraqi situation was inevitable, and that a Democrat might find it impossible to withdraw (lets not forget, Kennedy and Johnson, both good Democrats, were both lured into pouring more troops and money into Vietnam on the theory that victory was just around the corner.
Consider the challenges that incumbent Democrats face just defending their votes in favor of the war. Senate Republicans miss no opportunity to respond to legitimate criticisms of the handling of the war with the non sequitor "but you voted for it."
If John Kerry had squeaked out a win in 2004, and he were President today, with the war in Iraq going the way it is now, the news would have been filled with Republicans telling us "But George Bush had a plan. The insurgency was in its death throes. But the liberal, elitest, soft on defense, soft on terror, tax and spend Democrats tried to cut and run and NOW look at it. If GWB had been reelected, the Iraqis by now would be throwing rose petals at their feet, and Iran would be ready to follow."
I think that a victory for the Democrats might well have ended up crippling the party for a long, long time.
Instead, GWB won the election and two years later, we are poised to take back the House and Senate. If we don't win either House, the Iraq war is only going to get worse given Bush's unwillingness to change course or consider that his real mistakes are all traced to his fundamental (fundamentalist) misconceptions concerning history, economy, politics, philosophy, Islam, the hearts and minds of ordinary people, the nature of war (can you imagine GWB read ing von Clausewitz?), and the motivations of the jihadists. If the Democrats are close to having a majority now, just imagine how much more successful they will be in the 2008 elections after two more years of Bush's mishandling of every major issue from Iraq, to Korea, from Iran to Darfur, from the economy to tax policy, social security and immigration, two more years of Terry Schiavo's, flag waving, gay-bashing, and swift-boating.
So I'm not going to be terribly disappointed if the Democrats do not take control of both Houses in two months. I won't be as happy as I would be if we had taken every seat. But as far as I'm concerned, we've already won.
posted by BuddhistAttorney | 11:03 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home